San Diego Market Brief — Summer 2026

Where San Diego actually stands at mid-year: county sale prices holding, detached inventory tight, condos loosening, and mortgage rates parked in the mid-sixes. The first edition of our recurring market brief.

San Diego enters the summer of 2026 doing something it rarely gets credit for: behaving. County sale prices sit within a few percentage points of last year — slightly above, by most measures — inventory remains thin by any historical standard, and mortgage rates have spent the entire spring parked in the mid-six-percent range. After several years of whiplash, the market has settled into a narrow channel. It is not appreciating dramatically. It is not correcting. It is sorting — rewarding preparation, and quietly penalizing wishful pricing.

Beneath that calm surface, two markets are diverging. Detached homes remain scarce, competitive, and firm on price. Condos and townhomes have tipped toward buyers, with more supply, longer market times, and softer pricing. The county's headline numbers split the difference, which is exactly why this brief — the first installment of a recurring San Diego Market Brief — looks underneath them. The premise, in this edition and every one to follow: fewer adjectives, more verified numbers, and a clear read on what they mean for you.

The numbers

The cleanest county-wide picture comes from San Diego MLS data published by the San Diego Association of REALTORS (SDAR). From the April 2026 Monthly Indicators report, with May's early reads layered in:

• Median sale price. $925,500 across all property types in April, up 1.7% year over year. SDAR's May reporting puts the overall median at $925,000, up 1.3% — a second confirmation that prices are holding, not running. By segment, April's detached median was $1,100,000 (up 2.3%) and the attached median $680,000 (up 1.5%); in May, detached held at $1,099,500 while condos and townhomes eased to $675,000, about 1.5% below last May.
• Inventory and months of supply. 5,392 active listings county-wide at the end of April, down 12.8% from a year earlier — 2.8 months of supply overall. The split is the real story. Detached homes sat at 2.3 months of supply (down 23% year over year) against 3.6 months for attached; by May, per SDAR's monthly indicators, roughly 2.4 and 4.0 respectively, with detached inventory down nearly 25% from last year while condo inventory rose almost 6%.
• Days on market. SDAR's April averages, measured from listing to accepted offer: 35 days for detached homes, 41 for attached. Redfin's median measure — which mutes the drag of long-sitting listings — shows county homes going pending in about 23 days, unchanged from a year ago. May's detached reading quickened to 29 days as the spring season peaked.
• Sale-to-list ratio. Sellers received 98.5% of original list price in April, per SDAR — 98.9% on the detached side, 97.9% for attached. Redfin, which measures against the final asking price rather than the original one, puts the county ratio at 99.5%, with 39.2% of homes still closing above list.

One caveat belongs in every careful reading of this market: the answer changes with the yardstick. Measures tracking the city of San Diego, or smoothing out the mix of what happened to sell, run cooler than the county MLS — Redfin's city-level median was down 3.0% year over year through May, and Zillow's home-value index for the city sits 3.2% below last year. At the other pole, the California Association of REALTORS' April survey put the county's existing single-family median at $1,074,000, up a heady 5.8% — though C.A.R. attributed the record statewide median it announced in the same release ($914,810) largely to a heavier mix of high-end closings, a caveat worth applying locally as well. Read together, the honest summary is flat to modestly positive, with the precise answer depending on which slice of the market you own.

Rates & affordability

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.52% for the week ending June 11 — four basis points above the prior week, and down from 6.84% a year ago. The spring has been remarkably uneventful: since early May, the weekly average has held between roughly 6.36% and 6.53%. Rates are not low. They are, at last, predictable — which is its own kind of useful.

At San Diego price points, a third of a percentage point is real money. On a detached purchase at April's $1.1 million median with 20% down, principal and interest at this week's average rate pencils to roughly $5,575 a month — about $185 less than the identical loan at last June's average. At the $680,000 condo median, the same structure runs near $3,445. Both figures exclude property taxes, insurance, and HOA dues, which in this county are never a rounding error.

SDAR's housing affordability index — where 100 means the median income comfortably qualifies for the median-priced home — stood at 40 for detached homes and 65 for attached in April, each a notch better than a year ago. Improvement, yes. Generosity, no.

What it means if you're selling

The county-wide data flatters detached sellers and flatters condo sellers rather less, so the playbook depends on what you own.

If it is a detached home, scarcity is still doing quiet work on your behalf: under two and a half months of supply, nearly 99% of original ask received, and pending sales up 6.7% year over year in April. What scarcity will not do is absorb an aspirational price. Realtor.com's May data showed the share of San Diego listings taking price cuts actually shrank from a year ago — not because the market forgave overpricing, but because more sellers priced honestly from day one and never needed one. List at the number the comparables support, present the home impeccably, and let thin supply do the rest.

If it is a condo or townhome, you are negotiating now. Four months of supply, a 41-day average market time, and just under 98% of original ask mean buyers have alternatives and know it. Pricing precision, turnkey presentation, and a realistic read on your building's competition matter more this season than at any point in recent years.

What it means if you're buying

Detached buyers face a selection problem, not a leverage problem. New detached listings fell nearly 15% year over year in April, and with 39.2% of county homes still closing above list, the well-priced ones draw company. The discipline is unglamorous: be fully underwritten before you tour, know your true ceiling, and move decisively when the right home appears — hesitation remains the most expensive habit in this segment.

Attached buyers, by contrast, are enjoying the county's most genuinely negotiable market. Rising condo inventory, longer market times, and sub-98% list-price ratios add up to leverage on price, credits, and terms — particularly on units that have sat. Use it courteously and use it in writing.

On financing, plan around six and a half and treat anything better as found money. Mid-May's brief dip to 6.36% is the instructive example: windows open without notice and close the same way. The buyers who catch them are the ones already approved, not the ones waiting to be certain.

What it means if you're holding

Owners may have the strongest position of all, and the least urgency. Three quick reads:

• Equity. SDAR's April detached median of $1,100,000 compares with just under $950,000 in April 2023 by the same MLS series — meaningful appreciation even after a flat year, and the quiet foundation under every option you have.
• Refinance posture. At 6.52%, this week's average sits a third of a point below last year's. If your note dates to the 2023 peaks, have a lender model your break-even now and set a target rate — so a 6.3-handle week works for you instead of passing you by.
• Taxes and insurance. California's acquisition-based property tax assessment is a genuine consideration when weighing a move against an improvement, and worth modeling before you list rather than after. As for insurance, renewal-by-autopilot is no longer a strategy — confirm annually that your stated replacement cost reflects current construction reality.

A closing word

Markets like this one reward specificity — the county median says less about your decision than your property type, your block, and your timeline do. If you are weighing a sale, considering a purchase, or simply want to know what the past ninety days did to your own balance sheet, a conversation is the lightest-weight next step there is. Robyn Flint and Dwell Group at SERHANT read this market daily — the numbers above, and the streets behind them — and we are at your disposal whenever the timing is yours.

Dwell Group at SERHANT · Robyn Flint, DRE #02129556 · Serhant California, Inc. Figures cited as of their publication dates; market data is updated monthly and rates weekly.